General News - September 28, 2026 at 12:30 PM

Top of Mind

The global rates selloff is today's dominant position event: 10-year USTs at 5.22% (highest since 2007), German Bunds 3.65% (since 2009), Brent $107.50 after Trump rejected Iran's Hormuz ceasefire. October Fed hike odds are ~70%. Chair Warsh's "removing a dose of accommodation" framing signals open-ended hikes, not one-and-done. Nasdaq futures -0.9%, S&P/Dow -0.4%; high-grade fixed income now competes with equities.

Catalyst Radar

JOLTS Tuesday (7.24M expected), ADP and core PCE Wednesday, September jobs Friday (consensus ~90k payrolls, 4.1% unemployment). Eurozone supply from France/Germany/Italy/Spain this week. China Golden Week starts Thursday. ECB Lagarde speaks today.

Analyst / Opinion Columns

• Six money managers: Pimco's Ivascyn expects slowing, no recession, builds 6–7% high-grade portfolios. BlackRock's Rieder calls 7% at 3y duration a generational entry, "dabbling" in duration. Franklin's Desai sees yields rising further, avoids long end, selectively buys hyperscaler debt.
• WSJ's Greg Ip: Xi's China is weaker than perceived — retail sales shrinking, non-high-tech investment declining — giving U.S. leverage in trade.
• 22V Research's Roque: every rapid 10y rise in 50 years broke something. Early cracks: KRE -10% from high, utilities -4% in a week, homebuilders soft.

Markets

• UST bear-flattening: 2y 4.92%, 10y 5.22%, 30y 5.53%. DXY +0.1% to 101.1; ING sees 100.5 as fair value, Morgan Stanley targets 104 by mid-2027.
• Oil: Brent +3% $107.50, WTI +2.7% $94.88. Saudi East-West pipeline restarted exports after Houthi strikes.
• Gold -3.1% to $4,189, silver -4.7% to $61.78, miners lower. Bitcoin -2% to $82,827.
• Positioning: Citi flags a "light buyer's strike"; JPM bearish duration but less aggressive; JPM's Bob Michele sees the entire curve oversold; no Treasury issuance this week may bring respite.

Economy

• Fed Governor Barr says more hikes needed; October odds 68–70%. Last week's flash PMI: fastest growth in 5+ years, fastest job growth in 4.
• BoE held 3.75% (6-3) but signaled a hike increasingly likely; 10y gilt 5.41%.
• Moody's: $1,760 war cost per U.S. household since Feb 28 — $930 energy, $425 rates, $405 military.

Business/Finance

• Trump "very seriously" weighing diesel export ban; API warns it worsens shortage. U.S. retail diesel ~$6.50/gal. Morgan Stanley flags a gasoline feedback loop.
• Transport margins: J.B. Hunt sees Q3 EPS 5–10% lower; Norfolk Southern flags $8 California diesel.
• Costco Q4 profit up; Darden hit by food/labor costs; Vail Resorts FY EPS consensus cut to $4.43 from $7.04.

World/Geopolitics

• Trump rejected Iran's 7-day Hormuz ceasefire, expects post-midterm strikes; Saudi intercepted Houthi missiles. East-West pipeline flowing again.
• U.S.-China: bilateral $30B tariff cuts (U.S. consumer goods; China ag/coal), truce extended to January, quarterly Board of Trade, AI dialogue within two months.

Technology/AI

• Hyperscaler AI debt is a supply driver: Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle issued ~$132B through July vs. $35B avg 2020–24; full AI-related issuance could hit $300–570B this year.
• U.S.-China AI incident channel set; Washington said "Super Intelligence," Beijing "AI," signalling no global AI regime convergence.
• Geely announced EV battery recharging low to nearly full in under 5 minutes.

Standouts

• India's Reliance, Nayara rationed fuel sales — physical product scarcity.
• India burning coal stockpiles to close power gap.
• Panama Canal bids hit $5M/transit; El Niño cutting crossings.
• De Beers halting Venetia mine >2 years; natural diamond prices at record lows.
• Japan August FX reserves fell record $80B on intervention — policy, not stress.