Bitcoin News - August 11, 2026 at 11:00 AM
Top of Mind
The Coldcard hardware wallet hack ($116M–$130M+ confirmed stolen, 5,200+ addresses) is the dominant story this week, reshaping two adjacent narratives simultaneously. First, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded ~$850M–$865M in net inflows last week — their best week since April — with IBIT alone pulling $693.7M. Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas and BlackRock's Robert Mitchnick both flagged the timing against the hack but stopped short of claiming causation. Second, a companion exploit hit BTCPay Server's LND integration (macaroons stolen, Lightning nodes drained), with the Bitcoin Red Team simultaneously reporting 7,958 vulnerabilities across 150 Bitcoin repos — 168 critical. The through-line: AI-assisted attacks are outpacing defenders, and the resulting security anxiety is measurably redirecting capital toward custodied exposure.
Market Structure
- BTC at ~$64,000–$65,300 intraday range; July nonfarm payrolls (-23K vs. +95K expected) shifted September Fed rate-hike odds from ~67% to ~42% (CME FedWatch), lifting crypto and stocks briefly before BTC stalled at its 50-day EMA. Death cross remains intact; ADX at 10.6 — no trend conviction.
- ETF flows: $850–$865M weekly inflow (sources vary: Bloomberg, Farside, Bitcoin Magazine all converge near this figure), third-best week since October. BlackRock IBIT took 80%+ of flows; Fidelity FBTC 13%. AUM sits near $80B. Glassnode characterizes momentum as "improving demand within consolidation," not broad speculative expansion — that's analysis, not fact.
- Derivatives: Binance futures-to-spot ratio hit record 7.82x ($57.8B futures vs. $6.1B spot). CME hedge funds flipped net long BTC futures — CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju calls it "rare." Options skew at +11.4pp (83rd percentile); traders positioned for range continuation in August, downside resolution in September per Bitfinex.
- Strategy sold 1,690 BTC ($108.6M at $64,262 avg) Aug. 3–9 to fund STRC preferred buyback; holds 840,447 BTC. USD reserve now $4.65B. Fourth BTC sale of 2026; paper losses ~$8.7B at current prices.
Policy and Institutions
- Clarity Act punted to September 15 cloture vote. TD Cowen assigns 25% passage odds. Key holdout: Sen. Alsobrooks (D-MD) demanding ethics language covering Trump's $1.16B+ in disclosed crypto income (World Liberty Financial, TRUMP memecoin). Majority Leader Thune filed cloture before recess. Democrats need to be the source of ~6 crossover votes; Republicans accuse them of politicking ahead of midterms — both narratives are in play simultaneously.
- Wells Fargo launching tokenized deposits for corporate clients this fall — USD and GBP initially, proprietary blockchain, interoperable with planned industry network. JPMorgan and Citi already have competing products. Banks structurally prefer tokenized deposits over stablecoins to retain deposit relationships.
- Wintermute USA registered as broker-dealer, now eligible for NYSE/Nasdaq market-maker status; targeting crypto-adjacent ETFs and tokenized stocks. Aims to rival Jane Street and Citadel Securities in 3–5 years. Crypto-to-TradFi firm migration is accelerating (Ripple/Hidden Road, GSR/Equilibrium precedents).
- Trump Media (DJT) posted $238M Q2 loss, primarily $190M in unrealized crypto losses; terminating Crypto.com CRO treasury and prediction market deals. Still holds ~14,139 BTC as of July 31.
Network and Industry
- BIP-110 dead on arrival: Minority chain forked at block 961,632, mined two blocks via Ocean/Roughnecks, then stalled 88+ blocks behind mainchain. Only 2.53% miner signaling (55% threshold required). Luke Dashjr subsequently removed as BIP editor by Mark Erhardt; Dashjr called it "abuse of power." Saylor: "99.85% of hashpower stayed with Bitcoin."
- BTCPay Server critical LND macaroon exploit (pre-v2.4.2); Foundation and Citadel21 confirmed drained Lightning nodes. 3 BTC bounty offered. Boltz suspended swaps earlier this week for same AI-attack reason; Blockstream launched trustless swap alternative.
- Miner AI pivot: Riot +25% after-hours on reported $9.1B/20-year Anthropic deal (191 MW, Rockdale TX; Bloomberg-sourced, unconfirmed by Anthropic). Hut 8 signed second Beacon Point lease (352 MW, $9.8B). Bitdeer mined 2,694 BTC in Q2 (+389% YoY hashrate) but holds only 150 BTC after treasury liquidation. Keel (ex-Bitfarms) decommissioned all U.S. Bitcoin mining.
- Anthropic/TeraWulf $19B/20-year deal (July 6) adds context — AI labs are systematically contracting Bitcoin miner power capacity.
Macro Linkages
- Jobs/Fed: July NFP -23K (first net loss since pandemic recovery) plus downward revisions to May/June (-103K combined) shifted September Fed rate-hike probability below 50% — directly drove BTC to $65,340 August high on Friday before stalling at EMA resistance.
- Oil/Iran: Strait of Hormuz uncertainty (Iran's deputy speaker said "no military solution" to closure) pushed WTI near 5% intraday, reviving inflation concerns that cap the rate-cut narrative and create a ceiling on risk-asset relief rallies including BTC.
- AI capital rotation: WSJ documents retail and hedge fund rotation from BTC into AI equities as structural demand drain; BTC stuck near $60K–$65K while S&P hits new highs. Binance spot volume confirms retail exodus.
Standouts
- Broadridge's DLR blockchain repo platform processed $8T in July (+28% YoY) — tokenization at institutional scale is already live.
- North Korea's Kimsuky group is running local LLMs (Ollama, GPT4All) offline to generate crypto phishing and automate malware — AI cyberattack capabilities are now state-level.
- Thailand enacted 0% capital gains tax on licensed-exchange crypto trades through Dec. 31, 2029 — direct competitive pressure on other Asian hubs.
- Circle acquired IBM's 1,000+ blockchain patents (terms undisclosed) — single-sourced via CNBC, not independently corroborated.
- AUSTRAC suspended Australia's largest crypto ATM network (Cryptolink, 96 machines) for AML reporting failures — signals broader ATM crackdown incoming.