Bitcoin News - October 4, 2026 at 11:00 AM

Top of Mind
Bitcoin spiked to $87,200 Friday after September payrolls rose just 29k vs 84k expected and unemployment hit 4.2%, slashing October Fed hike odds to ~18% and pulling 10-year yields lower. The move stalled at $87,400—the gateway to $90k—and BTC retreated below $86k; overhead supply dominates. Positioning is not crowded: coin-denominated open interest sits near March lows despite this week’s rise.

Market Structure

• Spot BTC ETFs drew $6.34B in Q3, including $2.65B in September; Oct 1 added $102.7M after a $148.7M outflow. CoinShares flags the 6% basis trade and IBIT’s 53% September share clouding the institutional signal.
• BTC futures OI jumped $2.3B this week, funding positive; shorts liquidated $122M near $87k.
• Friday’s $15B options expiry had put/call 0.70, max pain $76k, call walls at $85/90/100k; QCP sees clients rolling Oct $90k calls into Nov.

Policy and Institutions

• The SEC proposed rules letting advisers/funds self-custody crypto when no qualified custodian exists, and allowing state trust companies as custodians; 60-day comment period follows.
• Senate Democrats’ report says 84% of sanctioned Iran-linked wallets transacted in Tether’s USDT; US also seized accounts of a Tether-linked payments group and alleged Chinese groups used Binance to launder $61M.
• Community bankers sued the OCC over crypto trust charters, calling them a “side door” into banking without equivalent oversight.

Network and Industry

• Bitget’s $387M hack was attributed to North Korea by Chainalysis; protection fund restored above $300M and withdrawals resumed. Attackers used THORChain and Zcash shielded pool.
• Core Lightning urged node operators on v26.06.7 or earlier to upgrade immediately due to attackers targeting unpatched nodes.
• Absa became the first African bank to custody Bitcoin for institutions, per Bloomberg; Jack Dorsey’s Block launched a national Bitcoin-spending ad campaign.

Macro Linkages

• The Treasury relief rally after soft payrolls is the “cleanest upside catalyst” for BTC, per QCP, as 10-year yields retreated from 24-year high 5.342%.
• Oil above $93 and gold’s 3.6% Monday drop to $4,115 reflect US-Iran war risk that capped non-yielding assets; BTC held $82.5k support three times this week.

Standouts

• Strategy bought 1,665 BTC for $142.7M at avg $85,681, stack now 847,666 BTC.
• Illinois delayed its 0.2% crypto tax to July 1, 2027 pending court approval.
• UK FCA opened crypto authorization applications ahead of Oct 2027 regime.
• EU probes Binance’s continued EU operations via reverse-solicitation exemption after MiCA lapse, FT reports.
• Citi raised 12-month BTC target to $113k from $82k, still 10% below Oct 2025 ATH.