General News - May 12, 2026 at 2:47 PM

Top of Mind

April CPI came in at 3.8% (vs 3.7% expected), core at 2.8% — stagflation is no longer a hypothetical. Oil spiked back above $100 WTI after Trump called the Iran truce “on life support,” rejecting Tehran’s proposal. Retail traders are loading up on AI call options at the highest levels since the Covid frenzy, but the macro headwinds are building. The combination of sticky inflation, energy shock, and stretched tech positioning makes the next few weeks high risk for long-duration equity exposure. Key tickers: SPY, QQQ, XLE, OIL, NVDA.

Catalyst Radar

• Trump-Xi summit in Beijing Thursday-Friday – Iran, trade, and Taiwan on the table.
• Nvidia earnings next Wednesday – the single most important AI catalyst.
• Senate Banking Committee vote on crypto bill Thursday.
• UK gilt yields at 2008 highs as Starmer faces leadership challenge.

Analyst / Opinion Columns

Jim Cramer (CNBC) highlights: CPI miss dashes rate-cut hopes. Nvidia’s Huang was not invited on the China trip — chip-smuggling risk. Mizuho raised AMD PT to $515 and Super Micro to $36, citing agentic AI demand. BofA warns gas prices will begin to “weigh more meaningfully” on consumer spending. Trian is exploring a take-private of Wendy’s.

Markets

• Retail call buying on Cboe’s Mag 10 hit the most aggressive level since Covid. Nasdaq-100 set a record; semis now nearly 20% of S&P 500 cap. Single-stock volatility elevated relative to VIX.
• WTI topped $100, Brent above $107 — both up 40%+ since the war began Feb 28. Citi sees further upside if no de-escalation.
• UK 10-year gilt yields surged to 2008 highs on PM Starmer’s leadership crisis.
• Consumer staples / value underperforming; AI stocks rallying on dip-buying.

Economy

• April CPI 3.8% YoY vs 3.7% expected. Core 2.8% vs 2.7%. Gasoline up 28.4% YoY, food 3.2%, beef 14.8%. War-driven pass-through still accelerating.
• Fed rate-cut expectations further pushed out. Market pricing in no cuts this year.
• Saudi Aramco CEO warned oil markets won’t normalize before mid-2027 if Strait closure persists past mid-June.

Business/Finance

• eBay formally rejected GameStop’s $56B bid; board called it “neither credible nor attractive.” TD’s financing had an investment-grade condition. GME down in premarket.
• Hims & Hers fell 15% on Q1 net loss of $92M and weak Q2 EBITDA guidance. Transitioning away from compounded GLP-1s; Novo partnership ended acrimoniously.
• On Holding beat on revenue and EPS, raised gross margin guidance to >64.5%. China sales up high-double digits as Nike struggles there.
• KKR’s private credit fund FSK had its JPMorgan-led credit line cut 14% after Moody’s downgrade and rising defaults. FSK loss of $2/sh in Q1. Signals broader private credit stress.
• GM laying off 500–600 IT workers, still hiring in AI and autonomous.
• Novo Nordisk released high-dose Wegovy data: early responders lost 27.7% at 72 weeks; overall average 21%. Aims to compete with Lilly’s Zepbound.

World/Geopolitics

• Iran war: Trump called ceasefire “on life support,” rejected Iran’s counterproposal. Oil rose. Strait closure continues; global inventories may be “critically low” by summer.
• Trump heads to China for summit with Xi. Taiwan, trade, and Iran are the three high-wire issues. Nvidia CEO Huang not on trip — likely due to chip export tension.
• UK PM Starmer is fighting for his job: 77 Labour MPs called for him to resign. Home Secretary Mahmood and two junior ministers quit. Gilt yields spiked. Eurasia Group says he’s “unlikely to last the year.”

Technology/AI

• SoftBank injected $450M into Graphcore (British AI chip startup). Funds earmarked for AGI development.
• Google’s Threat Intelligence Group says it likely thwarted a hacker group using AI to find a zero-day and orchestrate a “mass exploitation event.”
• Amazon launched 30-minute delivery (Amazon Now) in dozens of U.S. cities using dark stores and Flex drivers. Prime members pay $3.99. Direct pressure on Instacart and Walmart.
• Redwood Materials hired former Tesla CFO Deepak Ahuja as CFO. EV battery recycler cutting 10% headcount to refocus on energy storage.
• Mizuho raised Corning target to $220 on free cash flow growth and Nvidia optical partnership.

Standouts

• FSK credit-line cut by 14% is the clearest sign yet of distress in private credit; JPMorgan is tightening.
• UK gilt crisis — 77 MPs want Starmer out; this is a real macro shock for GBP and UK equities.
• Walmart / Target earnings next week will be the first real test of consumer health post-oil spike.
• Cboe call-buying metric hitting Covid-era extremes suggests crowded positioning in tech.
• GameStop’s bid for eBay is a M&A wild card — even rejected, it signals activist appetite.