Daily Brief — June 1, 2026

Top of Mind

Oil jumped 3%+ to $94 Brent after US-Iran strikes resumed over the weekend, snapping a three-day losing streak. Yet equity futures are rising — S&P 500 futures +0.2%, Nasdaq +0.1% — as the AI narrative overrides geopolitical fear. Nvidia (NVDA) unveiled its Arm-based PC chip (RTX Spark) at Computex, sending NVDA +2.3% premarket, Arm (ARM) +13%, and hammering Intel (INTC) -6%, Qualcomm (QCOM) -9.7%, AMD (AMD) -4.3%. The market is pricing a deal while the war grinds on; any breakdown in talks is the asymmetric tail risk for long equity positions. Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) announced its $6.8B all-cash acquisition of Taylor Morrison (TMHC) — first major deal under CEO Greg Abel, signaling a bet on housing cycle recovery.

Catalyst Radar

• Friday May jobs report (consensus +90k, unemployment 4.3%) — key test for Fed hike pricing. ISM manufacturing PMI today (expected 53).
• Computex conference continues this week with Intel and Marvell keynotes. SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic IPO filings expected in coming weeks.

Analyst / Opinion Columns

WSJ "Heard on the Street" on corporate bonds: High-grade yields at 5.3% are tempting, but spreads vs Treasuries are near generational tights. AI-related releveraging and potential supply surge from M&A financing could widen spreads from "priced-to-perfection" levels. FT Unhedged on AI and GDP: Korinek/McKelvey estimate AI compute spending hit $219B in 2025, but quality-adjusted prices fell 94%, implying a massive multiplier on real output that GDP accounts miss. The disconnect between visible capex and invisible productivity gains is structural.

Markets

• US futures positive despite oil rally. S&P 500 on track for 8th straight gain. SoftBank (9984.JP) +14%, overtaking Toyota as Japan’s largest company ($306B market cap). Kospi +3.7%, YTD +109%. EM stocks hit record high driven by Samsung and MediaTek.
• Oil Brent +3% to $94 after weekend strikes. US Central Command guiding ~70 commercial ships through Hormuz with transponders off. Brent was -11% last week on deal hopes.
• Bonds 10Y yield flat at ~4.45%. Fed hike by mid-2027 now ~70% priced. Bloomberg: oil shock has tightened financial conditions by equivalent of ~75bp of rate hikes.
• Bitcoin -3.1% to $72.8k, decoupling from equities. ETF outflows $733M Wednesday. Traders citing AI as the new speculative magnet.
• Copper LME +1.4% to $13,828. US tariff review deadline June 30 keeping the arbitrage spread wide. Goldman raised year-end forecast 10%+.

Economy

• ISM manufacturing expected 53 (vs 52.7 prior). Jobs week begins with JOLTS tomorrow, ADP Wednesday, payrolls Friday.
• Powell warned political "stress test" on Fed independence will destroy public trust. DOJ probe into Fed renovation dropped in April after Powell refused to cut rates on Trump's timeline.
• Chile inflation breakevens nearly back to pre-war levels; investors rotating back into short-term peso bonds.

Business/Finance

• Berkshire to acquire Taylor Morrison for $72.50/share (24% premium). Buffett lauded Abel's execution. Berkshire also took $2.6B position in Delta Air Lines in Q1.
• Barry Diller's IAC/People Inc. planning takeover bid for MGM Resorts. No price disclosed.
• Wise (WISE) -9.2% after Belgian prosecutors investigate €500M in transactions for potential money laundering. Shares hit 18-month low.
• CIBC selling Caribbean arm to Butterfield for ~$1.6B, launching buyback. Bank earnings beat across Canadian sector.
• JPMorgan ordered to pay $4.25M in wrongful termination by Finra arbitration panel over a $642.50 Super Bowl party expense.

World/Geopolitics

• US-Iran strikes resumed: US hit radar/command sites on Qeshm Island; Iran struck a US air base. Trump says "sit back and relax, it will all work out" on Truth Social. Iran insists ceasefire must include Lebanon. Kuwait reporting missile interceptions.
• Colombia election — right-wing outsider Abelardo de La Espriella won first round (43.7%) vs leftist Cepeda (40.9%). Dollar bonds surged 4 cents. Runoff June 21.
• Singapore scrambling to keep Asian oil flowing; refineries switching crude sources but storage buffers under strain. India's "city of glass" Firozabad cutting output 30% on gas shortages.
• Shadow fleet oil tankers: GMS CEO warns >50% corroding, "ticking time bomb" for environmental disaster.

Technology/AI

• Nvidia unveils RTX Spark — Arm-based PC chip made with MediaTek, combining Blackwell GPU with N1X CPU. Coming in 30+ laptops/10 desktops from Dell, Microsoft, HP this fall. Also: Vera data center CPU now in full production, early customers include Anthropic, OpenAI, xAI.
• SoftBank commits €75B to AI data centers in France (5GW), overtakes Toyota as Japan's #1 company. Son: AI revolution "50x bigger than dot-com."
• Runway investing $200M+ in London European HQ, building "world models" beyond LLMs.
• AI startup reality check: 857 US unicorns exist, but half haven't raised in 3 years. More than 220 have "fallen" — startups valued at $1B+ pre-ChatGPT now worth 52-68% less. Enterprise SaaS hit hardest.

Standouts

• BofA Hartnett: Only 20 S&P 500 stocks hit all-time highs in May — matching dot-com top in March 2000. Advising defensive rotation.
• JPMorgan traders: Warn on "profitless tech" after 57% YTD rally; advocate shift to quality names as yields stay elevated.
• Hyperliquid (decentralized exchange) processed $960M revenue with 12 employees; CFTC just approved first US perpetual futures on bitcoin.
• J&J facing in-vivo CAR-T disruption after losing partner Kelonia to Lilly ($7B buyout). Legend Biotech data next week is pivotal.
• Crypto treasury stocks collapsing: Strategy -60% YTD, Capital B -83% as bitcoin slides. Companies pivoting to "digital credit" perpetual preferred notes paying 11.5% to raise cash.