Bitcoin News - September 25, 2026 at 11:00 AM

Top of Mind

Bitcoin’s pullback toward $84,000 is macro-led, not a rejection of crypto-specific news: the 10-year yield hit 5.17%, its highest since 2007, and October Fed hike odds reached ~75%. Glassnode calls the post-Clarity decline “small”—new buyers quieted, but holders aren’t selling; coins are leaving exchanges and a buy wall sits within 10% of spot. Today’s $15.6B Deribit options expiry (max pain $76k, heavy $85k calls) pins price just below the key strike. The structural read: Congress failed, but the SEC and CFTC are already filling the gap, so legislative uncertainty is being priced as noise.

Market Structure

• US spot BTC ETFs are back to positive YTD at ~$787M, erasing July’s $5.8B hole; a six-day $2.84B streak slowed to $191M Thursday, with IBIT taking $163M.
• Derivatives: perpetual OI rose 1.8% to $153B while volume fell 17%; Wednesday liquidated $280M longs, but Binance whale long/short is 1.33—large accounts remain bullish.
• Options: 182k BTC contracts ($15.6B) expire today, 106k calls vs 76k puts; max pain $76k, call hedging clustered at $85k/$90k/$100k.

Policy and Institutions

• Clarity Act died on a 49-50 procedural vote; WSJ pins blame on Democratic anger over Trump’s $1.4B crypto income and Armstrong’s January pullout, while StoneX sees altcoins/DeFi hit hardest.
• Fed proposed GENIUS Act rules: full backing by short-term T-bills, standardized capital, and a narrow stablecoin-yield ban mirroring the OCC.
• SEC/CFTC are writing rules without new law: SEC’s five-year Innovation Exemption opens tokenized stock trading; CFTC sent market rules to OMB and Selig says it is preparing for “24-7, on-chain” markets.

Network and Industry

• Bitget lost $351.6M after attackers compromised a backend wallet system, not private keys; CEO cites preliminary North Korea IP evidence (unconfirmed). Withdrawals halted; $464M fund covers the loss.
• JPMorgan says BTC crossing ~$85k production cost should reduce miner forced selling; hashrate is down 19% from October as miners divert capacity to AI.
• Treasury unwinds continue: Sequans sold its final 314 BTC; FT says bitcoin treasury firms shed $80bn. Strategy remains countertrend, buying 950 BTC for $76M.

Macro Linkages

• After September’s first hike since 2023 to 3.75-4.00%, strong flash PMI pushed hike odds to ~75% for October—strengthening the dollar and pressing BTC lower.
• Oil is the swing factor: reports of a phased Hormuz deal briefly pushed Brent under $100 and lifted risk assets, but Iran denied talks, leaving crude as an inflation wildcard.
• Treasury’s $6B long-end buyback failed to cap yields this week—the same tool that powered August’s BTC run.

Standouts

• NY AG sues Polymarket as an unlicensed gambling operation; CFTC says it has exclusive jurisdiction, setting up a federal-state fight.
• WSJ: Polymarket’s CEO told staff to “keep growing and pay a fine” after a $10M fraud attempt; firm is raising $1B at a $21B valuation.
• US is weighing an initiative to promote dollar stablecoins abroad, possibly through private joint ventures, Bloomberg reports.
• Iran is turning to crypto to shore up its economy; US prosecutors say Chinese groups laundered $61M in Iranian oil money via Binance.
• Block added Bitcoin Lightning to the x402 AI-agent payment standard, joining Google, Microsoft, AWS, and Coinbase.