General News - May 26, 2026 at 5:30 AM

Top of Mind
US-Iran deal talks remain chaotic: Trump says negotiations “proceeding nicely” but U.S. forces struck Iranian missile sites overnight, sending Brent back above $98 after Monday’s 7% plunge. The equity risk premium has nearly vanished (WSJ) – S&P 500 earnings yield vs 10Y near dot-com lows. That makes positioning tricky: oil-sensitive plays (airlines, industrials) could whip, while utilities and bonds catch a bid on peak rate-hike expectations. Key tickers: Brent, WTI, SPX, XLE, JETS, TLT.

Catalyst Radar

• Thursday: Apr PCE (consensus +0.2% m/m) – could break the bond market’s ceasefire rally.
• Retail earnings: Costco and Dollar Tree this week.
• BOJ June meeting odds ~76% for a hike (overnight swaps); Deputy Governor Himino signaled openness.
• SpaceX IPO expected June 12; Open AI confidential filing imminent.

Analyst / Opinion Columns

• FT Lex notes the UK’s best-performing bank (likely Virgin Money or Lloyds) benefits from rate tailwinds but warns of margin compression.
• FT Lex on prize draw businesses: structurally advantaged by sticky consumer spending but regulatory risk.
• Bloomberg Opinion (Authers) flags papal concern over job displacement from AI data-gathering wearables, and notes China’s lead in physical AI (robotaxis) vs US in LLMs.

Markets

• Oil: Brent +2% to $98.26 after U.S. strikes; WTI -5% at $91.73 divergence due to domestic inventory builds (eToro). UBS warns global oil inventories dropped 246mbbl Mar-Apr; production losses may exceed 1bbbl by month-end. Asian tank bottoms nearing min operating levels (Carlyle’s Currie).
• Equities: Nikkei 225 breached 65,000 Monday; Kospi hit new record Tuesday (+2.8%). European Stoxx 600 highest since Mar 2. S&P 500 futures +0.8% after holiday. ASX tumbled 13% on capex guidance increase for tech revamp.
• Rates: 10Y Treasury yield down 5bp to 4.506% (catch-up to European bonds). German 10Y fell 9bp to 2.94% on peace hopes. BOJ 10Y JGB +2bp to 2.71% on reduced rate-hike expectations.
• Commodities: Copper holds near $13,680/t; gold -0.9% to $4,527 on strike risk. China coking coal +0.5% after Shanxi mine disaster halted 109 mines (122mt capacity).
• Currencies: Dollar stronger vs G10; Macquarie sees yuan potentially rallying to 5/$ if carry trade unwinds ($800bn of Chinese corporate dollar positions).

Economy

• Singapore Apr CPI 1.8% (below 2% est), core 1.4%; but authorities warn imported cost pressures will broaden. GDP revised to +6% QoQ.
• US consumer sentiment at record low (Univ of Michigan May), gas >$4.50/gal. Americans “entrenched” in financial stress, NFCC stress index at 6.7.
• Farm loan repayment rates fell for 10th straight quarter (Chicago Fed); tariff hangover + Iran war fertilizer/fuel costs hitting farmers.

Business/Finance

• Uber mulling improved bid for Delivery Hero (~€10bn market cap) after €33/share offer; DH shares +10%.
• Standard Chartered CEO Winters apologized for “lower-value human capital” comment; bank plans 15% back-office cuts by 2030. JPM Dimon defended him.
• Julius Baer shares -8.9% on slower net new money (1.7% annualized) due to risk review and Middle East uncertainty.
• BlackRock say-on-pay got only 65% support (avg 90%) over Fink’s $37.7M + carried interest plan.
• Ferrari unveiled first EV (€550k Luce); analysts skeptical on demand, but high buzz ahead of orders this week.
• Fertiliser groups cutting production as Iran war squeezes sulphur supplies (FT).
• Lincoln International IPO valued at >$2bn; CEO says M&A deal flow picking up.

World/Geopolitics

• Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed; Iran demands tolls and control, US refuses. Two LNG tankers passed through (FT), but minesweeping could take weeks; 1,500+ ships stranded. Impact on global oil/LNG supply still severe.
• Israel will intensify strikes on Hezbollah while US-Iran talks proceed; Tehran demands Lebanon ceasefire as part of deal.
• Pakistan’s military chief tells China deal “close to being reached,” but US strikes show fragility.
• China’s Guinea bauxite export curbs loom (June announcement); alumina futures +4.3% on cap speculation.
• South Korea to monitor $37bn overseas private credit exposure.

Technology/AI

• Nvidia underappreciated at $5.4T cap; 14th consecutive beat, but stock apathetic (WSJ). SpaceX’s xAI data center uses GB200; Nvidia sees ~$20bn CPU revenue this year – nearly matching Intel’s DC business.
• Huawei announces “LogicFolding” chip tech for Kirin smartphones this fall; claims equivalent to 1.4nm by 2031. Skeptics cite thermal/yield issues. CNBC says Nvidia loses China market.
• HBM memory stocks (Samsung, SK Hynix) boom-bust risk; Alphabet’s TurboQuant compression method could slash memory demand. Analysts warn cyclicality persists.
• Nebius (ex-Yandex) revenue run-rate to hit $7-9bn by year-end; $27bn Meta deal, but cap-ex at $20-25bn.
• UK AI Security Institute red-teamed every major LLM, found safety gaps in all; blueprint for other governments.
• ECB summons banks to fix flaws exposed by latest AI models (FT).

Standouts

1. SpaceX’s $1.5T+ IPO largest ever; bankers using manual phone allocation despite tech ambition (WSJ).
2. Fervo Energy (geothermal) shares +42% from IPO at $12.4B market cap; 658MW of binding PPAs with Google, SoCal Edison.
3. Sasol stock doubled YTD on oil spike, but only 2 of 9 analysts rate Buy; structural carbon liability and gas depletion.
4. China’s homegrown luxury brands (Maextro, Laopu Gold) squeeze European rivals; Richemont sales -23% in China.
5. Gulf AI hub ambitions tested by war; data center investment decisions paused/ longer timelines.