General News - June 26, 2026 at 12:30 PM

Top of Mind

The Nasdaq is on pace for its worst week since April 2025 as the tech selloff deepens, led by chipmakers. Apple’s admission that memory costs are “unsustainable” and a reported OpenAI IPO delay (potentially to 2027) have cracked the AI trade’s glass jaw. Oil slid another 3% to below $73 despite a fresh Hormuz attack — the market is pricing a sustained reopening, which pulls a macro tailwind for bonds but squeezes energy names. The Russell rebalancing after the close ($6T in assets moving) will reshape small-cap exposure, with 43 firms leaving the Russell 2000.

Catalyst Radar

• Russell index rebalancing (close today) — highest volume day of the year; SpaceX added to Russell 1000.
• End-of-quarter portfolio rebalancing amplifies flows.
• Fed speakers (Goolsbee, Williams) keep door open to hikes but market now sees lower odds.

Analyst / Opinion Columns

• WSJ Heard on the Street – Memory boom’s long-term risk is innovation: Qualcomm’s new compute, Nvidia design tweaks, Cerebras no-HBM chips threaten future demand for MU, SK Hynix.
• WSJ Markets A.M. – Argues small-stock premium is due for a comeback; S&P Small Cap 600 has crushed Russell 2000 over 30 years.
• Bloomberg Opinion – China should lean into “Chinamaxxing” tourism to revive visitor numbers.
• CNBC – “Tokenmaxxing” era fading; enterprises (Uber, Lindy) slashing AI spend, threatening growth rates at Anthropic and OpenAI ahead of IPOs.

Markets

• Equities: Nasdaq futures -1.2%, S&P -0.5%. Kospi triggered circuit breaker again (-5.8%). Global EM stocks -2.9%. SoftBank -13% on OpenAI IPO delay.
• Oil: Brent -3.2% to $72.83, WTI -3.2% to $69.62. Hormuz transits continue despite container ship attack; Saudi loading at Ras Tanura.
• Bonds: 10yr yield 4.39%, 2yr 4.10%. German Bund yield at 3.5-month low (2.84%).
• FX/Crypto: DXY -0.2%; Bitcoin below $60k, realized cost basis ~$53k — bottoming may take months. SpaceX bonds widened sharply — $305M paper loss vs Treasuries.
• Wendy’s: Meme rally fading (-6.7% Thursday) but still up 18% for the week; halted twice for volatility.

Economy

• Fed’s Goolsbee: inflation is “clearly the problem”; Williams sees CPI easing to 3.5% this year via tariff unwind/energy/Hormuz. PCE core at 3.4% (highest since Oct 2023).
• ECB hike bets trimmed below a quarter point; oil decline and cooling inflation shift pricing.

Business/Finance

• JPMorgan – Co-presidents Petno/Rohrbaugh promoted; Lake retires. $30M retention bonuses. Bank passed stress tests; JPM $50B buyback, MS $20B.
• ON Semi – Acquires Synaptics for $7B all-stock (ON -12% premarket, SYNA +4%); analysts worry distraction from AI data center push.
• VW – Reportedly planning 100,000 job cuts, four German plant closures; union vows to fight.
• Domino’s – Down 40% in a year, but asset-light model and buybacks may support EPS even with low same-store growth.
• SpaceX bonds – $305M paper loss since pricing; fast-money flippers hit by aftermarket weakness.

World/Geopolitics

• Strait of Hormuz – Traffic recovering to 75% of pre-war, but Iran mandates northern route only. UK Pauses IMO evacuation after attack. Iraq may seek higher OPEC quota or threaten exit.
• US-Iran deal – IAEA chief confirms nuclear site inspections planned. Tehran disputes terms.
• Lebanon – Defaulted bonds fade from 400% rally to 25 cents; war delays IMF programme.
• Hungary – PM sets 2030 target for euro adoption criteria; forint strengthens.

Technology/AI

• Memory crunch – Apple raising Mac/iPad prices; Gartner expects PC shipments -10.4%, smartphones -8.4% in 2026. Device makers pass costs.
• AI spending shift – CNBC reports Uber blew through full-year AI budget in four months; Lindy moved 100% of traffic to DeepSeek to cut costs.
• OpenAI An IPO delay (to 2027) depresses risk sentiment; Anthropic running at $47B ARR but growth may peak.
• Intel – Up 550% in a year, but 18A yields not yet accretive; CFO admits process not neutral to gross margins.
• Polymarket – US exchange hits $1B+ annualized revenue just six weeks post-waitlist; World Cup driving volumes.

Standouts

1. SpaceX bonds – Record secondary weakness signals investor skepticism on unprofitable tech credit; $305M losses since issuance.
2. Red Lobster – Creditors sue Thai Union over “car crash” Endless Shrimp promotion; former controller accused of overcharging.
3. Estrogen patches – 162% prescription surge, three manufacturers in shortage; not resolved for at least a year.
4. Polymarket – $1B annualized revenue highlights explosion in prediction markets post-CFTC clearance.
5. Student loans – Judge blocks Trump's grad borrowing caps for fields outside medicine/dentistry; nursing and education spared for now.