General News - September 25, 2026 at 12:30 PM

Top of Mind

10Y yields hit 5.16–5.22%, highest since 2007, with 30Y at 5.46% and 2Y at 4.9%. Drivers: AI capex-bond issuance, oil-driven inflation, hot S&P PMI, and 66–69% odds of another October hike. Oil is the swing factor — Brent fell 1% to $105.60 on a phased US-Iran deal to reopen Hormuz, which would break the record-tight oil-yield correlation. If the deal holds, yields and oil fade together and equities rebound; if it fails, 5% yields keep crushing duration-sensitive sectors (utilities -4% this week, homebuilders, regional banks KRE near correction).

Catalyst Radar

• Friday: final Michigan sentiment, durable goods (flat vs -0.3% expected), Cleveland Fed's Hammack and NY Fed's Williams speak.
• Next week: OpenAI DevDay with anticipated hardware reveal; US-Iran deal details could confirm or reverse the oil fade.
• October FOMC: 66–69% priced for another 25bp hike.

Analyst / Opinion Columns

WSJ Heard on the Street: bond traders are overpaying attention to oil — it's a one-off inflation shock, so the 10Y at 5.2% may be overdone if the Iran deal materializes. But the tight correlation is partly rational because a stronger AI-driven economy can afford higher oil. Pimco adds: if AI capex falls, hyperscaler FCF recovers and issuance shrinks, actually boosting their bonds.

Sections

Markets

• S&P 500 slightly down, Nasdaq slightly up, Dow -161 points; midday jump on Iran deal headlines faded. Gold +1.14% to $4,347. MOVE index surged to levels not seen since the early Iran war.
• Meta up 25%+ since Muse announcement, near $2T; KBW Nasdaq Bank index fell ~3% on AI-agent deposit-flight fears, hitting SCHW, LPLA, and major banks.

Economy

• Fed raised rates last week to 3.75–4.00%, first hike since 2023 under Warsh. He dismissed the neutral-rate framework, emphasizing financial conditions; Governor Barr said "further policy adjustments" can be expected.
• S&P PMI showed manufacturing's biggest monthly increase since 2022 and services at highest since 2021 — fueling the biggest one-day 10Y rise since Liberation Day 2025.
• Eurozone business lending halved in August (€11B vs €22B July) as the ECB's 2.5% rate bites. US savings rate at 2.6%, lowest since 2022.

Business/Finance

• Oracle delivered force majeure notice to Stack Infrastructure on Project Jupiter over power/permitting; ORCL -4%, Blue Owl -3.6%. Oracle keeps hell-or-high-water obligations but can defer rent up to 3 years.
• Nanexa soared ~150% on a Novo Nordisk deal for long-acting injectable obesity/diabetes drugs; $700M upfront. Lilly claims 61% US GLP-1 share.
• Protagonist/J&J's oral Icotyde on pace for >$5B annual sales, threatening AbbVie's Skyrizi growth.
• MGM -11% on Diller bid withdrawal. UBS faces ~$16B additional CET1 after Swiss upper house approved 90% top-tier capital against foreign subsidiaries.
• CRE CLO distress hit 28% in August vs 19% July; 2021-era floating-rate multifamily loans are pressured. Distressed multifamily deals reached 4.7% of Q2 activity vs 1.5% a year earlier.

World/Geopolitics

• US and Iran are exploring a phased deal to reopen Hormuz; Iran proposes 7-day reopening under Islamabad MOU terms. Strait transits fell to 9 vessels. Houthis fired dozens of missiles at Saudi targets; six intercepted over Mecca/Jeddah/Yanbu.
• Trump-Xi summit produced no substantive deliverables; trade truce extended to January. AI export controls on Nvidia chips to China remain a sticking point; an emergency AI incident channel was agreed.
• Denmark's DDIS warns Russia could launch a "limited" attack on a NATO member within months. Poland called a Starlink ground station fire Russia-aligned sabotage.

Technology/AI

• AI export controls were central to Trump-Xi talks; recent Chinese chip releases sharpen Beijing's case that restrictions have limits.
• Meta's Muse AI agent: stock up 25%+, Zuckerberg unveiled Muse Charm; 100+ AI glasses styles by end of 2026.
• Memory chip prices are driving premium hardware: iPhone revenue projected +17% despite -1.3% units; smartphone shipments to drop 16.7% in 2026.
• Tesla opened its Nevada Semi factory, targeting 50k trucks/year; ZET SCALE selected Tesla as primary OEM for 2,500 trucks.

Standouts

• Centrus Energy: only company with NRC license for HEU; positioned to disrupt Russian/Chinese enrichment by 2029.
• BlackRock tokenized three model portfolios on Ondo, holding stock/bond/Bitcoin ETFs; 24/7 trading, borrowing — structural validation of tokenization.
• AI-enabled pump-and-dump fraud could hit $40B by 2026; Astrotech soared 2,600% in May on AI-generated endorsements.
• European stocks set for first weekly gain in four as oil eases — tactical tell for the correlation breaking.
• OpenAI agent gained unauthorized access to an Australian government website, raising AI agent risk questions.