General News - July 14, 2026 at 12:30 PM

Daily News Brief — July 14, 2026

Top of Mind

Big bank earnings smashed records across the board (GS, JPM, BAC, C, WFC) — investment banking and equity trading were the standout engines, with GS stock trading revenue up 72%, JPM equity trading up 86%, and BofA equity trading hitting a record. The CPI print simultaneously came in cooler-than-expected (headline -0.4% MoM, core flat), which slashed July Fed rate hike odds from ~50% to ~17%. However, oil continues its ascent (Brent above $87) as the US-Hormuz blockade re-escalates, putting a floor under inflation expectations. The net takeaway: rate-hike fear abated temporarily, but the NACHO trade and supply-side risk remain the dominant macro overlay.

Catalyst Radar

• Fed Chair Warsh testimony continues Wednesday; PPI data tomorrow
• Monthly OpEx July 18; FOMC July 29; IBM's pre-announcement miss (-23%) sets a cautious tone for tech sector earnings

Analyst / Opinion Columns

• WSJ Heard on the Street (AI / Biotech): AI has not yet proven it can change the economics of drug development. The core problem is not idea generation but clinical trial success — only 1 in 10 candidates reaches market. "Eroom's Law" (Moore's Law backward) still holds; AI believers concede it will take several more years for validation. Thesis: don't chase the AI drug-discovery narrative into near-term earnings.

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Markets

• Oil: Brent surged another 5%+ to $87.01; WTI above $80. The NACHO trade is back — market now pricing "effectively zero chance" Hormuz returns to prewar normal. Houthis fired missiles at Saudi Arabia, widening the conflict.
• Gold: Recovered 0.8% to ~$4,020 after dropping below $4k Monday. Non-yielding bullion still under pressure from sticky oil-driven rate expectations, but the cooler CPI print offered a bid.
• Bonds: 10yr yield dropped 7bp to 4.55% after CPI; 2yr fell 10bp to 4.18%. The curve steepened modestly on the dovish data surprise.
• Dollar: Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.5%. EUR/USD to 1.1450, GBP/USD to 1.3430.
• Equity Futures: S&P 500 +0.5%, NDX +1.4% (led by semiconductor bounceback after SK Hynix ADR rally), Dow flat. IBM -23% weighing on Dow, but bank earnings providing offset.

Economy

• CPI: Headline fell 0.4% MoM (vs +0.1% expected), y/y down to 3.5% from 4.2%; core was flat MoM and 2.6% y/y. A clear downside beat — reduces immediate pressure on the Fed to hike at the July meeting, but oil risk remains live.
• Fed Rate-Hike Odds: July hike odds collapsed to 17% from 42% Monday. Market still pricing one full hike by year-end.

Business/Finance

• Bank Earnings (Big 5 beat): GS profit +78%, record equity trading revenue; JPM record profit, equity trading +86%; BofA profit +27%, record equity trading; C +45%; WFC +17%. All cited strong investment banking fees (SpaceX IPO, M&A) and equity trading. Despite the beats, JPM, C, and WFC were pre-market red — possibly on expense guidance (JPM raised full-year expense view) or profit-taking.
• IBM: Pre-announced Q2 revenue of $17.2B (missed by ~$700M) and EPS of $2.93 (missed by $0.08). Blamed the z17 mainframe launch stumble, supply chain capex shifts, and large deals slipping. Shares -24% premarket — dragging down software peers (MSFT -2.8%, ADBE -4.8%, INTU -5%).

World/Geopolitics

• Strait of Hormuz: US reinstated the blockade on Iranian shipping; Trump also proposed a 20% toll on all cargo passing through Hormuz. Iran attacked two UAE tankers (Al Bahyah, Mombasa B). The UAE is accelerating plans for a new east-coast port to bypass Hormuz. Saudi Arabia is diverting ~4M b/d through the East-West Petroline to Yanbu. Citi warned the toll plan materially raises risk of further escalation.
• China: Called for immediate restoration of normal Hormuz passage but did not offer any concrete diplomatic intervention.
• Russia-Ukraine: Ukraine attacked two Russian refineries and five tankers overnight; Russia struck Odessa fuel facilities.

Technology/AI

• IBM Contagion: The software/infrastructure miss is being read across to other enterprise tech names. Microsoft, Adobe, Intuit all lower. The issue is a capex reprioritization toward servers/storage/memory, not a demand collapse, but it creates near-term noise.
• Data Centers: WSJ reports developers are looking to offload majority equity stakes worth tens of billions this summer, a record wave of M&A. SLB and Liberty Energy partnered to provide modular power parts to data centers — energy companies increasingly integrating into AI infrastructure.
• Turbine Supply Chain: Demand for turbine blades and vanes is surging across aerospace and gas turbines for data centers. Howmet expects gas-turbine revenue to double in 3-5 years; backlogs for heavy-duty turbines are up to 8 years.
• SK Hynix Options: Begin trading today; retail "bottleneck bros" are piling into options on the memory supplier, viewing it as the next high-beta AI supply chain play.

Standouts

• Warren Buffett excluded the Gates Foundation from this year's charitable stock donations, citing an unresolved review of the foundation's ties to Jeffrey Epstein — marks a break from a 2006 irrevocable pledge.
• Dangote Refinery stopped selling petroleum products in naira, reverting to dollar pricing — a reversal of a landmark 2024 plan that will likely renew pressure on the Nigerian naira.
• Pentagon NDAA: A provision (Section 815) would require Pentagon approval for stock buybacks and dividends by defense contractors; the Chamber of Commerce and 40 business groups are urging the Senate to strike it.