News Brief
Published Jul 14, 2026 12:57
News Brief

Bitcoin News - June 25, 2026 at 11:00 AM

Bitcoin News Jun 25, 2026 11:00 Scheduled 11 outlets
117Articles 115Extracted 2Failed 28.1mRuntime

Top of Mind

Bitcoin dipped to $59,023 on Wednesday — its lowest since October 2024 and down ~53% from the $126K all-time high — driven by a convergence of Strategy/STRC stress, ~$800M in long liquidations, six-plus weeks of ETF outflows (~$6B cumulative), and a hawkish Fed pivot. The core positioning risk is structural: retail has largely exited, institutional demand is retreating into AI equities, and the market's buyer of last resort — Strategy — is under balance-sheet pressure that is now visibly constraining its buying pace. Friday's $10B options expiry on Deribit (37% of open interest, 0.83 put/call ratio, most calls now OTM) risks amplifying the move in whichever direction flow tips first.

Market Structure

  • BTC touched $59,023 (lowest since Oct. 2024), rebounded to ~$61,650 by Thursday London open. ~$800M in longs liquidated in 24 hours per CoinGlass; rolling 24-hour total hit ~$1.1B Tuesday. Price is below the 200-week moving average — historically a bear-market signal. ETF assets have fallen to $77.5B from ~$113B at year-end.
  • Spot BTC ETF outflows: ~$3B in June alone; rolling 1-year notional flows turned negative for first time since Nov. 2023 (K33). IBIT led a single-day $182M outflow; BlackRock's model-portfolio 1–2% allocation recommendation (via Gates) has not arrested the trend. Pace of outflows has slowed to ~625 BTC/day the past two weeks vs. ~4,400 BTC/day in May.
  • $10B Deribit options expiry Friday (4pm Singapore). Bulk of call OI is now OTM; puts cluster $60–65K and $70–75K. Deribit CCO Pequignot: "consensus long-call positioning has drifted offside." Dealer hedging unwind may mean Friday's move overshoots then mean-reverts; the real directional test is first full week of July (Tesseract/Haeems).
  • On-chain constructive signals, not yet confirmatory. LTH supply at 79% of circulating (K33 all-time high); OG holder selling 90-day avg at 962 BTC, 19-month low; ~50% of supply underwater. Glassnode characterizes recent buyers as "crystallizing losses at accelerating pace" — deep-bear conditions, not confirmed bottom.

Policy and Institutions

  • CLARITY Act faces new Senate headwinds; July 17 NY hearing scheduled. Law enforcement coalition (70K+ members) and ~80 Catholic organizations sent letters opposing Section 604 (BRCA developer exemption), calling it AML/KYC gap. Senators Warner and Cortez Masto have explicitly tied support to law enforcement sign-off — making these letters a direct vote threat. Galaxy Research still puts passage probability at 60–75%, targeting August 3 signature, but the window is tight before summer recess.
  • Fed CBDC ban attached to housing bill (85-5 Senate vote); House fast-tracking. Bans Fed from issuing a CBDC through 2030; explicitly carves out private stablecoins. Near-certain to reach Trump's desk. Structurally bullish for private stablecoin issuers; no near-term BTC price impact.
  • Binance withdrew MiCA application in Greece (July 1 deadline); EU status unresolved. Tried Ireland, Latvia, Greece — faced resistance in all three per Reuters. Co-CEO Teng says committed to securing license "in coming months," but some EU users face disruption. ESMA separately ordered all unlicensed CASPs to wind down EU operations by July 1.
  • BlackRock formally recommends 1–2% BTC allocation in model portfolios; added IBIT. Framed as structural diversification, not speculative. IBIT holds ~$49B AUM, ~50% of RIA-allocated crypto ETF capital.

Network and Industry

  • Miners in margin squeeze: ~20% unprofitable at current prices. 7-day revenue avg ~$30M/day vs. $50M+ last summer; fees under $250K/day. JPMorgan production cost estimate ~$78K vs. ~$61K spot — gap held 5 months. Difficulty fell 10% in second week of June (second such drop this year); public miners sold 32K+ BTC in Q1 to cover opex.
  • CoinEx processed $3.84B in Iran-linked flows since 2019 (TRM Labs/WSJ). Replaced Binance as Nobitex's largest foreign counterparty by 2024. Wallets received Bybit hack proceeds via Iranian central bank. CoinEx disputes "commercial relationship" with Iranian government; not yet OFAC-designated. U.S.-Iran peace talks complicate enforcement outlook.
  • Strategy: MSTR below $100 for first time since March 2024; STRC hit record low $79.85. Cash reserve down 38% YTD to $1.4B; dividend obligations quadrupled to ~$1.2B/year (14 months coverage vs. 7 years prior). CryptoQuant/Moreno: pause BTC buys, rebuild to $2.8B. K33's Lunde: Strategy "far from forced selling," ~10 months coverage post-$300M raise. Sources disagree on severity.
  • Sparrow Wallet Apple developer account reinstated after appeal. Craig Raw's account was flagged for termination June 30 over placeholder app submission; Apple reversed. Fake Sparrow apps remain on App Store, still draining user funds.

Macro Linkages

  • DXY at 13-month high; hawkish Fed pivot driving capital away from BTC. Fed Chair Warsh signaled no cuts, open to hikes; BofA now forecasts 3 hikes in 2026. CME FedWatch: ~36% probability of July hike. Rising real rates directly remove the liquidity tailwind that supported BTC — Deutsche Bank, Cointelegraph, and Bitwise all name this as primary bear driver.
  • US-Iran MOU (Strait of Hormuz partially reopening) initially lifted BTC to $65.5K, but gains fully reversed. Brent fell below $74; gold fell below $4,000. The macro reprieve was insufficient to offset Fed tightening narrative. Cointelegraph notes M2 rose to $23.05T in May — not yet a short-term BTC catalyst but supports long-term thesis.
  • SpaceX post-IPO selloff (-27% from peak) and AI capex rotation accelerating crypto outflows. Korean KOSPI -10% triggered contagion into crypto. Deutsche Bank: hyperscalers spending $700B+ on AI in 2026; BTC and AI equities share the same marginal buyer.

Standouts

  • SBI Holdings acquiring Bitbank for $288.6M, creating Japan's largest crypto exchange by AUM (~$6.8B) and accounts (~2.92M). Signals continued Japanese institutional consolidation.
  • H100 shareholders approved deal to triple BTC holdings to ~3,500 BTC, making it Europe's second-largest listed BTC treasury behind Bitcoin Group SE.
  • Cantor/BSTR shareholder vote delayed to July 2 amid DAT valuation pressure; BSTR's $1.5B PIPE could push holdings to ~53,500 BTC if fully deployed.
  • Strive (ASST) CEO buying BTC "hand over fist" at current prices; 19,864 BTC treasury, $4.2B raise program underway — most aggressive public accumulator besides Strategy.
  • DOJ seized Huione Group cloud infrastructure tied to billions in crypto laundering; FinCEN extended ban to successor entity H-Pay Service PLC.