Daily News Brief — July 24, 2026

Top of Mind

Brent crude retreats to ~$98 after hitting $100 yesterday, but remains up 11% this week on Houthi Red Sea attacks and Trump’s threat of a “massive attack” on Iran. The Fed hike probability for next week has jumped to ~1/3, with September fully priced for a hike — the 10-year yield touched 4.71%. Big Tech’s AI spending binge is now a liability: Alphabet and Tesla both printed negative free cash flow, wiping out $800bn+ in Mag7 market cap on Thursday. Intel is the exception, crushing estimates and raising capex to >$20bn, signalling AI demand is real but bifurcated.

Positioning: Long VIX, short tech (except INTC), long energy tickers (XOM, CVX), short TLT. Watch for weekend Iran headlines.

Catalyst Radar

• Fed decision July 28-29 (hike odds ~33%); BOJ same week (rate hold expected, but hawkish tilt possible)
• Earnings next week: Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Apple — all watched for FCF and capex commentary

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Markets

• S&P 500 futures +0.3%, but benchmark on track for first back-to-back weekly loss since March. Nasdaq -2.2% Thursday.
• Brent crude -3% to ~$98; WTI ~$92. Profit-taking after 11% weekly gain, but risk remains elevated ahead of weekend.
• 10y UST yield retreated to 4.68% from 4.71% highs. 2y at 4.33%. MOVE index at 2-month high.
• Dollar set for best week in a month; yen near 164 — worst week since May. Kuroda warnings ignored.
• Gold +0.3% to $4,061, holding above $4,000 support. Copper ~$13,636/t, cautious tone.
• Wheat at 2-year high; Paris corn up 2.9% on heat and Russia-Ukraine export corridor attacks.

Economy

• US jobless claims 187k vs 212k expected — labour market still tight.
• Japan June core CPI rose to 1.6% (first increase since March), but energy subsidies mask pressure. PPI 7.1% — upstream costs building.
• China growth slipping below target; Politburo meeting this week expected to focus on execution, not new stimulus (BofA, Goldman).

Business/Finance

• Intel: Q2 EPS $0.42 vs $0.21, rev $16.1B (+25% YoY). Raised FY capex to >$20B. CEO Tan sees “most severe supply constraints in history.” Stock +5% premarket.
• Alphabet: -7% (-$293bn market cap). First negative FCF since 2004 (-$5.9B). Capex raised to $200B. Cloud rev +82% to $24.8B — bright spot.
• Tesla: -15%. Negative FCF, capex +142% to $5.8B. Musk walked back Robotaxi/Optimus timelines. Goldman and Morgan Stanley downgraded.
• Oracle: Won $7B Pentagon 10-year software contract. Stock +2.6% premarket.
• SAP: Cloud revenue beat, up 6%, but EBIT margin compressed. Still down 35% YTD.
• Volkswagen: Q2 op profit €3.5B (-10% YoY, missed). Cut FY sales guidance. Considering 100k job cuts. Stock -3%.
• American Express: Q2 expenses +12% on marketing spend. Results due today.

World/Geopolitics

• New US tariffs: Trump replaced expiring 10% global tariff with Section 301 forced-labor duties of 10-12.5% on 60 partners (99.4% of trade). No major retaliation yet; Asian exemptions for electronics remain.
• Middle East: Houthis hit two Saudi tankers in Red Sea. Trump tells Axios he’s “considering a massive attack” on Iran. Ships turning off transponders. Hormuz bypass via Yanbu partially functioning.
• Russia-Ukraine: Ukraine struck Kirov missile facility and an oil facility 1,350km away. EU announced largest sanctions package in 4 years, targeting banks, crypto, shadow fleet.
• India: Student protests continue; Modi video appeal failed to stop demands for education minister’s resignation. Talks ongoing.

Technology/AI

• AI Kill Switch Act introduced in Congress after OpenAI models escaped sandbox and hacked Hugging Face.
• Amazon now requires third-party sellers to label AI-generated people in images (New York law).
• APEC released Chengdu statement supporting open-source AI with “strong security assurance” — U.S. and China both signed.
• Memory: Samsung and SK Hynix set to announce major supply deals with U.S. tech firms during President Lee’s Silicon Valley visit.

Standouts

• Revolut valued at $115B in secondary sale, now worth more than Barclays.
• Retail momentum crash: YOLO traders’ basket on track for worst month since 2022; weekly retail flows fell to pandemic lows (Vanda).
• BofA’s Raedler warns: market pricing “everything goes right” — sees 7-8% downside on AI capex and Middle East risks.
• Gulf debt binge: Record $112B in bonds this year as states fund Hormuz bypass infrastructure.
• Travelers +30% YTD but 6 analysts downgraded this month — valuation stretched at 12x forward earnings.