Daily Brief — July 15, 2026

Top of Mind

ASML raised full-year guidance for the second time and reported record orders, confirming the AI capex supercycle is accelerating. This reinforces longs in NVDA, AMD, TSM, AMAT and the broader semi supply chain. Meanwhile, the US launched fresh strikes on Iran, with Trump threatening to hit power plants and bridges next week. Brent above $85, Gulf Coast crack spreads at record highs — XOM, CVX, VLO, MPC are direct beneficiaries. IBM crashed 25% on a profit warning, dragging software names (ACN, NOW, WDAY) — clear rotation from legacy IT to AI hardware. PayPal jumped 20% on a reported $53B takeover offer from Stripe/Advent.

Catalyst Radar

• Fed Chair Warsh testifies before Senate Banking today.
• PPI (June) and Johnson & Johnson, United Airlines earnings.

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Markets

• S&P 500 +0.38%, Nasdaq +0.90%. Dow flat (held back by IBM). Goldman +9%, JPM +2%, Citi -5.3%, WFC -2.7%.
• Brent crude +1.7% to $84.73. Confirmed traffic through Strait of Hormuz fell to just 10 ships Monday. Gold +1.6% to $4,061.
• 10-year yield fell 2.4bp to 4.585%. WSJ Dollar Index -0.4%.
• US refiners are minting money: Gulf Coast 3:2:1 crack spread hit a record >$62/bbl. Citi notes ~5% of global refined product supply is offline (Iran, Russia, China export cuts). VLO, MPC, PSX EPS forecasts tripled vs last summer.
• Corporate bond spreads vs Treasuries are near post-2008 lows on long-duration IG, driven by institutional demand for income. Risk: more AI bonds hitting supply (Amazon 2066s) and Fed rate hike risk.
• Stock issuance surge: $344.7B of new shares YTD, exceeding full-year totals for 2022-2025. SpaceX, SK Hynix, Anthropic pipeline. Buybacks slowing. Some analysts flag late-cycle risk.

Economy

• June CPI cooled to +3.5% YoY (vs 3.8% expected), down from 4.2% in May. Core services moderated. Software prices surged 17.4% — likely AI adoption.
• Fed Chair Warsh called for "regime change" in monetary policy, reiterated 2% inflation target is non-negotiable. Said economy expanding at "solid pace." Business investment (AI data centers) called "most striking feature."
• Mortgage rates rose to 6.65%, highest since August 2025. Purchase apps fell 7% WoW. Refi apps +4%.

Business/Finance

• Big banks: JPM, Goldman, MS, BofA, Citi, WFC collectively earned $49B, +39% YoY. MS reported record quarterly revenue ($21.35B) and profit (+58%), equities trading rev +69%. BNY Mellon profit +22%. Goldman equity underwriting fees doubled on SpaceX IPO. Citi fell on plans to reinvest heavily in good times — expenses concern. JPM CEO Dimon: "it's getting close to as good as it gets."
• IBM plunged 25% — worst day ever — on a profit warning. Customers shifting spending to AI hardware/memory chips, away from software and infrastructure. Dragged Accenture, Gartner, Workday, ServiceNow.
• PayPal +20% premarket on Reuters report that Stripe + Advent offered ~$53B ($60.50/sh) to acquire it. PayPal hasn't responded yet.
• Lucid denied bankruptcy rumor; shares fell 16%. Says liquidity sufficient into next year, but cut 18% of US workforce.
• Circle received OCC approval to launch a national trust bank for digital asset custody. Shares +13% premarket.
• JPMorgan investing $24M in Philadelphia submarine manufacturing (Rhoads Industries) as part of $1.5T national security initiative.
• BAT benefitting from FDA guidance allowing new vape/pouch sales during application review. Smokeless sales nearing 20% of revenue — valuation re-rating potential. PMI already trades at 21x earnings.

World/Geopolitics

• US launched fresh wave of strikes on Iran early Wednesday against coastal defense systems and cruise missile sites on Greater Tunb Island. Trump: “We’re going to hit them very hard tonight… next week comes the power plants and bridges.” Ceasefire is "over." Analysts warn of "forever war" risk.
• Iran has attacked tankers in the Gulf. Strait of Hormuz traffic collapsed to single digits. Brent above $85. This is the primary driver of energy price risk.
• Richemont shares +6% after 20% sales growth (jewelry +24%). Positive read for LVMH, HERMES. Luxury demand broadening to watches (+8%) and fashion (+10%).

Technology/AI

• ASML raised 2026 sales guidance to €43-45B (prev €36-40B), gross margin 54-56%. Record orders, considering 30% output boost to EUV capacity in 2027 and again in 2028. China still ~20% of sales. Shares +3.4% in US premarket.
• Alibaba (BABA) +3.7% on news that its Qwen AI will be integrated into Apple Intelligence in China, after Chinese regulator approval.
• New York became first US state to ban new large-scale data centers (>50MW) for one year. Governor cited grid strain and ratepayer costs. Backlash from tech; Sen. Fetterman: "China wins."
• Apple in talks with startup PrismML that shrinks AI models to run on iPhone. Released compressed Alibaba Qwen model (54GB → <4GB). Could enable on-device Siri overhaul.
• Meta sued by current/former employees alleging AI systems discriminated in May layoffs by failing to account for medical/family leave. Lawsuit points to "token consumption" metrics.
• DeepSeek preparing for Shanghai IPO as early as Q2 2027, aiming to raise at $71B+ valuation. Also raising more debt/equity.
• AI for drug discovery: Roche's Genentech built "lab in the loop" using AI to predict targets. But Wall Street waiting for bottom-line proof — clinical success rates haven't improved.

Standouts

• Warren Buffett told CNBC he personally initiated Berkshire's Alphabet investment, but says it's not among his top 5 businesses due to AI capex demands.
• Star analyst Dan Ives left Wedbush to co-found merchant bank Yorkville Ives & Co., focused on AI, tech, and infrastructure financing.
• A bipartisan group of senators introduced the PROMISE Act to create a legislative process for Social Security reform ahead of 2032 trust fund depletion.
• Goldman Sachs' former top lawyer Kathryn Ruemmler faces House Oversight questioning today on Jeffrey Epstein ties.
• U.S. attorney general nominee Todd Blanche faces Senate Judiciary hearing; controversy over Epstein document release and a canceled $1.8B "anti-weaponization" fund.