News Brief
Published Jul 25, 2026 11:28
News Brief

Bitcoin News - July 25, 2026 at 11:00 AM

Bitcoin News Jul 25, 2026 11:00 Scheduled 11 outlets
120Articles 120Extracted 0Failed 28.0mRuntime

Top of Mind

The Clarity Act's passage before the August 7 recess is now the market's primary binary. Galaxy Research cut odds to 30% (from 50% a month ago), Senate Majority Leader Thune publicly doubted timing, and seven Democratic holdouts rejected the latest ethics language. The counterweight: Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon broke with JPMorgan to back the bill, Fidelity and major advocacy groups are pressing for a floor vote, and White House crypto adviser Witt called Thune's read too pessimistic. If the bill slips to September, NYDIG and Bitwise both frame it as the most meaningful near-term overhang for the sector; passage would likely pull institutional flows back into Bitcoin.

Market Structure

  • BTC fell from ~$67K (weekly high) to ~$62,800 by Friday, with Iran escalation, surging 10-year yields (18-month highs per Kobeissi), and rising July FOMC rate-hike odds (~40%) driving the reversal. Fear & Greed sits at 28.
  • ETF flows snapped a 7-session, ~$1B inflow streak Thursday: $225M net outflow led by IBIT ($202.5M); Morgan Stanley's MSBT was the lone fund with inflows (+$5M). Week still net +$274M. YTD position remains -$4.84B.
  • Binance saw a single-day 9,000 BTC net outflow (largest since Nov 2024), per CryptoQuant — characterized as self-custody accumulation, not necessarily a trend reversal; 30-day netflow momentum remains indecisive.
  • On-chain: BTC supply in profit at 57.5% (up from 46.2% June 30 low), but CryptoQuant notes prior false breakout in May–June; LTH-SOPR 30-day SMA has been sub-1 for 50+ days. VanEck flags no true capitulation signal yet (skew not past +15pts, funding not negative).

Policy and Institutions

  • Clarity Act timeline is deteriorating: Galaxy at 30% odds; Thune said "I don't think we'll get it done" before recess; Democrats demand DOJ not be sole enforcer on ethics provisions. Prediction markets had been at ~20% for weeks.
  • Strategy + BlackRock-led Bitcoin Security Consortium pledged $15M over 3 years to fund post-quantum cryptography R&D; nine founding members include Coinbase, Fidelity, Galaxy, ARK, Block, Blockstream, Anchorage. Galaxy separately committed $5M in developer grants. Neither body will direct protocol changes.
  • Trump financial disclosure showed >$1.16B in 2025 crypto income: $526.8M from World Liberty Financial token sales, $635M in "Celebration Coins" royalties. Still holds ~$900M in WLF tokens. Directly feeds Democratic opposition to Clarity ethics language.
  • Coinbase settled SEC FOIA lawsuit for $150,000 — one of the agency's largest-ever FOIA awards — after revealing the SEC lost Gensler-era communications during its peak anti-crypto enforcement period. SEC also fixed record retention policies.

Network and Industry

  • Foundry USA (23.8% of hashrate) is polling miners on BIP-110 — a soft fork to restrict non-monetary data in transactions, limiting Ordinals. Voting closes early August. Adam Back and Michael Saylor have both opposed it publicly; outcome could set precedent for miner governance of protocol changes.
  • BitMEX shuts down Sept. 23: HDR Global Trading cited strategic review; CEO/CFO/CGO departed last month. A 623 BTC fraud class action filed the same day. BMEX token -90%. Platform pioneered 100x perp swaps; its closure reflects DEX (Hyperliquid) share gains over CEX perp volume.
  • Poolin filed Chapter 11 in New Jersey: $100M–$500M liabilities, ~$163.7M owed to 11,700 frozen wallet users from 2022. Seeks to sell two West Texas mining sites via $52M stalking-horse bid (Thor CALAP). Once held ~20% of global hashrate; now 0.2%.
  • Miner-to-AI pivot accelerating: Hut 8 signed a second 15-year lease (704 MW total, Beacon Point TX); IREN booked $2.8B in AI cloud contracts; TeraWulf signed 20-year Anthropic deal (~$19B potential revenue); MARA pursuing 2GW Texas site. Bernstein remains overweight sector; >7.5 GW in July deals tracked.

Macro Linkages

  • US-Iran escalation drove Bitcoin's Friday decline to ~$62,800: Brent topped $100/bbl at one point this week; WTI near $79 Friday. Rising oil revives inflation fears and pushed July FOMC rate-hike odds from ~12% to ~40% in one week, directly pressuring risk assets including BTC.
  • Soft June CPI (headline -0.1% MoM, 3.9% YoY; core 2.6% vs 2.9% forecast) temporarily lifted BTC to $65,500+ mid-week and reset hike odds before Iran escalation reversed both. Fed Chair Warsh flagged AI energy demand as a new inflation source. July 28–29 FOMC is the next binary.
  • Grayscale (Pandl) argues BTC may have already bottomed if Fed skips hikes and growth holds — framing macro, not the 4-year cycle, as the driver. CoinShares counters: "no significant upside" given macro headwinds; rate cut not probable near-term.

Standouts

  • Strategy overhauled investor metrics, debuting "net Bitcoin per share" ($95) stripping $22.3B in preferred/debt claims; mNAV now reads 1.02x under new formula. Earnings July 30.
  • Morgan Stanley's MSBT ETF hit ~$391M AUM in under one quarter — the only Bitcoin ETF to record inflows on Thursday's down day.
  • BIP-459 draft (DahLIAS full BIP340 signature aggregation) posted to Bitcoin-Dev — could enable CISA, reducing multi-input transaction fees; requires two-round interactive protocol with untrusted coordinator.
  • Hyperliquid: RWAs hit 54% of weekly volume ($26B), the first week non-crypto assets dominated any major derivatives exchange — ARK says this may fragment crypto and RWA venues permanently.
  • Crypto wrench attacks cost victims $124M in H1 2026 (up ~12x YoY); France accounted for 64% of 52 verified incidents, per CertiK — increasingly relevant for custody and operational security planning.